Record-breaking 2024 US political ad spend likely to disrupt commercial media landscape

Democrats have led in spending so far, and investments are likely to ramp up in the coming weeks.

And while some traditional approaches to political advertising – like a focus on big, national TV spots – remain top-of-mind, media mixes for both Republicans and Democrats are changing shape to accommodate other channels.

With the election just 13 weeks away, the influx of spend is causing significant ripple effects across the broader media landscape, as commercial advertisers attempt to maneuver touchy content and inflated inventory prices.

Digital rears its head, but linear remains king

So which channels are winning?

Vice President Kamala Harris, who became the Democrats’ frontrunner when President Biden decided to withdraw his candidacy on July 21, has moved at lightspeed to build campaign momentum on social media, using both paid and organic earned media tactics.

She shared her first campaign ad on X, formerly Twitter, just four days later, and actively embraced memes from ‘brat summer’ to ‘coconut tree.’ Harris has also leaned into TikTok, amassing 4.6 million followers in less than a month. It’s an effort that has stoked support among young voters.

The Vice President’s focus on digital channels reflects broader trends in political advertising. During this election cycle, digital is expected to attract $3.46bn in spend, or about 28% of total spend in the cycle. This represents a 156% uptick from 2020 levels.

Digital channels are attractive for a number of reasons – among the most compelling is their advanced audience targeting capabilities. In digital media planning and buying – especially transactions within walled gardens like Meta and Google – political campaigns have access to tools that enable them to serve personalized, highly relevant ads to specific voter groups.

Despite this fact, digital still isn’t the top dog. Linear TV will maintain the media landscape’s stronghold on political ad dollars during this election cycle, attracting approximately 70% of total spend.

Linear TV remains a cornerstone of Donald Trump’s advertising strategy. The Republican nominee and former President ran his first major attack ad on Harris just days after she entered the race in late July. The 30-second spot, which took aim at Harris' immigration policy, aired on TV in six battleground states – Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump’s team dedicated a total of $12.3m to the effort, according to data from AdImpact published by The New York Times.

One reason for linear’s ongoing dominance is the fact that the US electorate skews older, and older voters tend to consume broadcast and cable television at a higher rate than younger voters, so campaigns are simply meeting voters where they are.

But this isn’t the only reason that political ad dollars keep funneling into linear. Linear is likely benefiting from the limitations of digital channels. Although digital channels, including social media and streaming, are growing in importance, they lack standardized reporting and transparency. Linear TV, however, maintains stringent disclosure requirements, which enables viewers – and political opponents – to easily access information on how much money was spent on a given ad and who funded it.

“If you’re sitting at home and you're watching Jeopardy on TV, and you see political ad, anyone with access to the internet can go online and figure out exactly how much money was spent on that ad, who is sponsoring that ad, who the executive officers of the campaign or issue group [are], and there is a very clear trail for disclosure. In digital, there is no such thing,” says Tyler Goldberg, director of political strategy at Assembly Global, a Stagwell-owned agency involved in political media buying.

Because digital platforms don’t provide the same level of insight, it’s difficult for political campaigns to gauge and respond to their rivals’ spending. As a result, linear TV remains the preferred choice.

Despite the limitations, digital investment is still growing. Connected TV (CTV) and streaming, in particular, are attracting increasing political ad spend.

As traditional TV viewership declines, with Democrats, Republicans and Independents alike all consuming less linear TV compared to a few years ago, political advertisers see an opportunity to embrace streaming and CTV.

AdImpact predicts that spending on CTV ads during the 2024 election will rise 24% from the midterm levels in 2022, totaling close to $1.34bn. This figure surpasses projected investment in Google and Facebook ads, which AdImpact predicts will be around $1.2bn.

And not only are voters across party lines increasingly shifting to streaming and CTV, but a proliferation in platforms has made political advertisers spoiled for choice. Where they may have only considered Amazon Prime Video and YouTube a few years ago, they can now pick from inventory across Hulu, Netflix, Max, Disney+, Peacock, Paramount+ and more.

“As a result, CPMs [cost per thousand impressions] are more affordable,” says Jeremy Goldman, senior director of marketing, commerce and tech briefings at market research firm Emarketer.

Plus, targeting on many streaming and CTV platforms have become more sophisticated – another big selling point for political campaigns looking to reach their base as well as undecided voters. “You can have greater confidence that you’re reaching the right people and you have the right frequency caps in place,” says Goldman. “And then on top of that, it’s cheaper to do so, so it’s just become a better deal in relation to [other channels].”

The more sophisticated targeting capabilities afforded by online video have already proved effective for some political candidates.

For example, in his 2022 gubernatorial reelection bid, Ron DeSantis allocated $20m of his $70m budget to streaming and online video platforms. His media team, led by FlexPoint Media, reportedly targeted specific voter demographics like veterans and South Florida residents on CTV. The strategy paid off handsomely; DeSantis flipped historically Democratic counties like Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, and ultimately secured the largest margin of victory in a Florida gubernatorial election in 40 years.

The ripple effect in commercial advertising

And as billions of campaign dollars flood into the media ecosystem, commercial brands are being forced to rethink their strategies as inventory becomes scarcer and more expensive.

The sheer volume of political ads may drive up the cost of media inventory across the board, making it harder for non-political advertisers to secure premium placements without paying a premium.

“The implications on national and state levels are similar – inventory will be snatched up by political candidates, and that will change supply and demand,” says Jennifer Kohl, chief media officer at WPP-owned agency VML. The agency, Kohl says, expects to see political spend increase in the coming weeks, which “will take inventory away from brands and [may] increase pricing.”

Compounding the issue is the fact that election day falls at a time when brands are often kicking off holiday campaigns, Kohl notes, increasing the pressure on brands looking to make the most of their media budgets and drive sales in the fourth quarter.

Of course, the problem will vary in intensity across markets. Key battleground states, like Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, for instance, are likely to see much higher levels of spend associated with candidates at both the state and federal levels.

“You may be absolutely inundated with political ads in Columbus, Georgia, [the market of] which spills over into Alabama. But if you’re in Birmingham, which is just 100 miles down the road, you’re not going to see anything,” says Goldberg.

Because of this kind of variance in different markets, Goldberg’s team at Assembly Global has built out a model that can predict the intensity of political advertising in a given market. It’s a tool that the agency uses to help advise brand clients on how to allocate media budgets during a high-intensity election cycle.

However, changes to inventory supply and pricing aren’t the only ways in which an influx of political ad dollars is likely to impact brand advertising.

When consumers are surrounded by political messaging, their consumption habits can be influenced in surprising ways, Goldberg says.

For example, he says: “If you’re … predisposed to being a Republican – maybe you’re older, maybe you live in a certain market, in a certain state – and all of the political ads you’re seeing are talking about inflation in the economy, does it make you less likely to go out and buy something expensive? Conversely, if you’re getting targeted with a lot of Democratic messaging about … all of the support that the Biden-Harris administration put towards climate change policies, maybe you’re more likely to go buy an electric vehicle the next time you’re looking at a car.”

The long and short of it is, “there are all of these secondary and tertiary effects of having people watching $12bn worth of political ads,” Goldberg explains. “So if you’re a commercial advertiser and you do not have a plan for analyzing how political [ad spend] is going to affect your Q3 and Q4, you’re not operating with the most information. That’s why it’s so important to work alongside folks who understand the political landscape.”

Looking ahead, the US can expect to see political ad spend continue on its upward trend into the coming years.

Part of this projection stems from the set of circumstances that gave way to current spend patterns. Most notably, US campaign financing rules – and, by extension, political advertising norms – were shaken up drastically in 2010, when the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling threw out campaign finance laws that limited corporate and union spending on political advertisements. It was a decision that opened the floodgates for corporations and unions to spend nearly unlimited amounts of money on political campaigns, elevating the influence of corporations and wealthy donors in US politics.

As a result, Goldberg says, “there's more money than ever in politics, and it is continuing to grow.”

For now, as political ad dollars continue to flow, the advertising landscape will remain a battlefield – not just for political campaigns, but also for brands vying to maintain their visibility in a crowded market.

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