Familiarity didn’t ultimately breed contempt for Trump, says Politics for Drummies host
Alastair Duncan writes that it was the media – old and new – that won this election for Donald Trump.
Nothing was keeping Trump out of the Whitehouse this time
Sometimes, we hear the phrase ‘for the man who needs no introduction’ at events and on TV. And that really sums up why Trump won the US election. It was an astonishing comeback for the Republican party and a victory for Trumpism. Quite how far his extraordinary charisma and representation as a ‘strong leader’ proved to be the deciding factor, only time will tell. But he said that he would ‘fix it,’ whatever that means, and America believed him.
On the Politics for Drummies podcast, Marshall Manson predicted correctly that there were too many structural factors playing in favor of Trump. The world will examine whether those factors are fatal for democracy, but just why was Trump so successful and Harris not?
Trump acknowledged his victory around 2.30am as early voter counts made it clear there was no mathematical path left for Harris to win. Because of the way US elections work, he needed to win at least three of seven swing states to block his opponent Kamala Harris. In the end, reminiscent of a deranged Pokemon character, he won them all, as he would say, ‘by a lot.’
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According to Time Magazine, Trump’s campaign strategy is neatly summarized as “Max out the men and hold the women.” And the numbers bear witness to exactly that happening. Trigger warning: If you’re a Democrat, you might not like the next paragraph. But if you like data points, you’ll want to see it.
The 2024 exit poll data compared with 2020 is brutal. Trump won men by over 10 points, compared with +4 points in 2020. He gained ground with women by +2 points. He gained with young voters (+11 points), 18-29-year-olds (+11) and 45-64-year-olds (+4). He won Hispanic voters by 10 points, coming from a position of losing them by 23 in 2020.
Harris only gained 65+ voters by 5 points. Ironic considering her focus on younger voters. The cynic in me might say that only older voters know what Trump is really like. Among white, college-educated voters, Trump won by +3 points.
How did he do it? In US elections, the economy always takes the ground away from the incumbent if it’s not going well. Trump focused on this relentlessly, framed through his angry tirades against Biden and Harris. Inflation has hurt Americans where it counts – in their wallets. And by conflating the economic argument with one about illegal aliens (‘they’re eating the cats’ is merely a proxy for ‘they’re taking your jobs’), he was able to cast doubt on Biden’s economic performance.
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In political campaigns, there are only really two strategies, as we’ve discussed on the podcast. For the incumbent, you’ve got to persuade the public to keep calm and carry on. If you’re the challenger, you must argue that it’s time for a change. This US election proved to be a little unusual in that Biden was swapped out for Kamala Harris three months before the election. And Trump has been president before.
By all accounts, Kamala Harris ran an excellent campaign. She attempted to present herself as the change candidate. She ran a highly targeted campaign focusing on the swing states. She chose the folksy football coach and all-American Tim Walz as running mate. She raised far more money than Trump, so she wasn’t short of funds for campaign work and advertising. In fact, Trump’s campaign couldn’t buy enough TV ads, resorting to massively overspending in places such as Montana by $400 per voter.
Harris made abortion and a woman’s right to choose a central issue for her campaign. As one TikToker put it, ‘Trump and Musk: 2 men who have 17 children by 6 different women preach about traditional families?’ And they say Americans don’t get irony. Harris stood her ground in the television debate, so much so that Trump refused to do any more. But in the end, even this wasn’t enough.
What went wrong? Perhaps the dead cat strategy (where they’re getting eaten by Puerto Ricans) of Trump and Vance kept her off the news. She had only three months to become as famous as her opponent. Trump was very careful to avoid discussion about his previous chaotic presidency, except to say people were better off. He neutralized the visceral effect of abortion laws on women by constantly saying he would protect women. Frankly, I can’t imagine how any woman, especially Black women candidates in any position in America, must be feeling right now.
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As marketers, we know that successful rebrands have three magic ingredients. First, simply remind people of what they liked about a brand in the first place, even if it’s not for everybody. Trump, despite being a liar, insurrectionist and convicted felon, is exceptionally charismatic. Second, find the grains of truth about the brand and bring them to life in a new way. Trump’s version of X, Truth Social, is called that for a reason.
Third, connect with your audience on a deep emotional level. The economy is bad; Trump will fix it. He has somehow managed to rebrand American working-class culture in his image. Making America great again continues to be undeniably compelling and even though his rhetoric is shameful, people felt they were financially better off under his presidency.
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In the end, it’s a win for familiarity. Some say it’s a victory for Putin. Now we are left wondering what is the point of an electoral system of accountability if people don’t care about accountability? Undoubtedly, the media has made Trump famous. He’s successful at old media and new media and there will be political, economic and cultural consequences; for example, misogyny will enter mainstream politics. Trump won 9% of the 54% who didn’t like him, but they still chose him over Harris, exposing a deep seam of trouble in American society.